Yesterday’s Results

Summary

## No bets were placed for February 14

Points

## No results available

Rebounds

Assists

3-Pointers

All Results

## No bets yesterday

Recent Performance

Last 30 Days

Points

Threes

Rebounds

Assists

Combined

Current Season

Points

Threes

Rebounds

Assists

Combined

Today’s Picks

Remember: Points = UNDERS | Rebounds = OVERS | Assists = OVERS

Points

High Confidence

## Picks will be available after 10 AM ET line scrape

Medium Confidence

Suspicious (5+)

Rebounds

High Confidence

Medium Confidence

Suspicious (5+)

Assists

High Confidence

Medium Confidence

Suspicious (5+)

3-Pointers

High Confidence

## Picks will be available after 10 AM ET line scrape

Medium Confidence

Suspicious (5+)

All Picks

Historical Backtest

All-Time P&L

Points

Threes

Rebounds

Assists

Combined

Season Summary

Strategy Stats

Rebounds & Assists (Matchup Filter)

Update (2026-01-31): After fixing lookahead bias in the backtest, the matchup filter shows no meaningful edge. Earlier results (+6-12% ROI) were inflated because we used current team rankings on historical data. With proper dynamic rankings calculated as of each game date, results are essentially break-even.

Bottom Line: After correcting for lookahead bias, the matchup filter shows no reliable edge for rebounds or assists. Rebounds are marginally better vs hard matchups (56.2% vs 54.7% win rate) but still near break-even. Stick to points UNDERS only.

Alternate Lines

Investigation (2026-02-15): Can we find edge on alternate player point lines? Books offer multiple lines per player (e.g., Under 19.5, Under 24.5, Under 29.5) at different odds. We tested whether our model could exploit these.

Bottom Line: Alternate lines are priced efficiently. Win rates increase with higher edges, but the odds (juice) increase proportionally. Even at 8+ edge (86% WR), ROI is ~0%. The books know exactly how likely an Under is at each alternate line. No exploitable edge found.

Quick Reference

What To Bet Today

THE RULE IS SIMPLE:

Prop Type Recommendation Why
POINTS UNDERS only Model underpredicts scoring (+7-11% ROI)
REBOUNDS NOT RECOMMENDED No reliable edge after proper backtest
ASSISTS NOT RECOMMENDED No reliable edge after proper backtest

How To Use This Report

  1. Check Yesterday’s Results - See how your actual bets performed
  2. Review Today’s Picks - Filter by prop type and confidence
  3. Place High/Medium confidence bets - Skip Low confidence
  4. Use the recommended sportsbook - Already line-shopped for best odds

Quick Stats from Backtest

Prop Bet Type Win Rate ROI Strategy
Points Under 55-57% +10-15% All matchups, 2+ edge
Rebounds Under 63% +12.6% Hard matchups only
Assists Under 61% +7.4% Hard matchups only

Hard Matchups = Top 8 defensive teams (rolling 45-day calculation)

Methodology

The Model

Elastic Net Regression - A regularized linear model that predicts player stats using recent performance data.

Active Prop Types

Prop Type Bet Direction Status Win Rate ROI Filter
Points UNDERS Production 55-57% +10-15% All matchups
Rebounds UNDERS Production 63% +12.6% Hard matchups only
Assists UNDERS Production 61% +7.4% Hard matchups only

Hard matchups = Top 8 defensive teams (recalculated daily from last 45 days)

How It Works

  1. Calculate features from player’s recent 3-9 games
  2. Model predicts expected stat (points/rebounds/assists)
  3. Compare to line = calculate edge (prediction vs sportsbook line)
  4. Filter by direction - All props: UNDERS only
  5. Matchup filter - Rebounds/Assists: only bet vs top-8 defensive teams
  6. Require minimum edge - 2+ points/rebounds/assists

Points Model

The points model systematically underpredicts player scoring, which makes UNDERS profitable.

Features used (12 total):

Feature Description
roll_pts_3/5/7/9 Rolling points average over 3, 5, 7, 9 games
roll_mp_3/5 Rolling minutes played
roll_usg_3/5 Rolling usage percentage
roll_3pa_3 Rolling 3-point attempts
career_avg_pts Career points average
roll_pts_sd_5 Scoring variability (5-game std dev)
days_rest Days since last game

Backtest results (walk-forward):

Strategy Win Rate ROI
All bets 48% -8%
Overs only 44% -15%
Unders only 55% +18%
Unders + 4pt edge 57% +25%

Betting rule: UNDERS only with 3+ point edge

Rebounds Model

Key Discovery (2026-01-31): Sportsbooks don’t fully adjust lines for opponent defensive quality. UNDERS are profitable when facing hard matchups (top-8 rebounding defenses).

Features used (12 total):

Feature Description
roll_trb_3/5/7/9 Rolling total rebounds over 3, 5, 7, 9 games
roll_mp_3/5 Rolling minutes played
roll_orb_5, roll_drb_5 Offensive/defensive rebounds
career_avg_trb Career rebounds average
roll_trb_sd_5 Rebounding variability
reb_per_min Rebounds per minute rate
days_rest Days since last game

Backtest results with DYNAMIC matchup filter (no lookahead bias):

Matchup Type Bets Win Rate ROI
All matchups 19,218 55.0% -2.3%
Hard matchups 3,953 56.2% +0.03%
Other matchups 15,265 54.7% -2.9%

Result: Marginally better win rate vs hard matchups, but essentially break-even. Not recommended.

Assists Model

Backtest results with DYNAMIC matchup filter (no lookahead bias):

Matchup Type Bets Win Rate ROI
All matchups 12,866 52.8% -6.1%
Hard matchups 2,950 53.4% -5.2%
Other matchups 9,916 52.6% -6.4%

Result: No meaningful difference between hard and other matchups. Not recommended.

3-Pointers Model

Features used (11 total):

Feature Description
roll_3pm_3/5/7/9 Rolling 3-pointers made over 3, 5, 7, 9 games
roll_mp_3/5 Rolling minutes played
roll_3pa_5 Rolling 3-point attempts (volume)
roll_3p_pct_5 Rolling 3-point shooting percentage
career_avg_3pm Career 3-pointers made average
roll_3pm_sd_5 3-point variability (5-game std dev)
days_rest Days since last game

Status: New prop type - backtest pending historical data collection.

Betting Rules Summary

Points

Rule Requirement
Bet Type UNDERS only
Min Edge 3+ points
Max Odds -150 or better
HIGH conf 4+ point edge

Rebounds

NOT RECOMMENDED - Dynamic backtest shows no reliable edge (+0.03% ROI)

Assists

NOT RECOMMENDED - Dynamic backtest shows no edge (-5.2% ROI)

3-Pointers

NEW - Backtest pending. UNDERS only with 1+ point edge (preliminary).

Generated 2026-02-15 13:01 ET